Advanced Flower Capital Inc.

Advanced Flower Capital Inc. (AFCG) Market Cap

Advanced Flower Capital Inc. has a market capitalization of $82.1M.

Price: $3.49

-0.17 (-4.64%)

Market Cap: 82.12M

NASDAQ · time unavailable

CEO: Daniel Neville

Sector: Real Estate

Industry: REIT - Specialty

IPO Date: 2021-03-19

Website: https://advancedflowercapital.com

Advanced Flower Capital Inc. (AFCG) - Company Information

Market Cap: 82.12M|Sector: Real Estate

Company Profile

Advanced Flower Capital, Inc. provides commercial real estate finance services. It primarily engages in originating, structuring, underwriting and managing senior secured loans and other types of loans for established companies operating in the cannabis industry in states. The company was founded by Leonard Mark Tannenbaum on July 6, 2020 and is headquartered in West Palm Beach, FL.

Analyst Sentiment

71%
Buy

From 3 Active Polls

1Y Forecast: $16.00

▲ +358.5% Potential Upside

Consensus Target Metrics

Low Bound

$10

Median

$13

High Bound

$25

Average

$16

Price & Moving Averages

Loading chart...

🎯 Wall Street Analyst Intelligence Report

1-Year structural target targets, chart projections, and sentiment maps.

Average 1Y Target
$16.00
▲ +358.45% Upside
Low Target
$10.00
187% Risk
Median Target
$13.00
272% Mid
High Target
$25.00
616% Max
Consensus
Hold
5 / 11 Buys

Consensus Trend Projection

Trailing closures vs. 12-month metrics map.

Analyst Vote Distribution

Aggregate institutional coverage sentiment weights.

📊 Historical Valuation Multiples

Real-time Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) momentum side-by-side with discrete quarterly metrics.

Fiscal QuarterTTMQ1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024
Period EndingTrailing 12MMar 31, 2026Dec 31, 2025Sep 30, 2025Jun 30, 2025Mar 31, 2025Dec 31, 2024Sep 30, 2024Jun 30, 2024
Market Cap ($M)8266658599123182211169
Enterprise Value ($M)172156123151195231267237122
Price to Earnings Ratio (P/E)-6.171.4517.66-1.70-1.887.56-45.7838.152.56
Price/Earnings-to-Growth Ratio (PEG)0.030.020.040.01
Price to Sales Ratio (P/S)3.746.769.72-100.6115.6617.6978.0524.277.44
Price to Book Ratio (P/B)0.440.360.370.500.540.610.901.020.54
Price to Free Cash Flow Ratio (P/FCF)6.0410.58-115.1013.8556.2931.3981.7279.8916.35
Enterprise Value to Sales (EV/Sales)15.9018.56-178.9430.8233.17114.5927.295.37
Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA)-19.9811.3346.43-12.84-14.6655.2174.76
Debt to Equity Ratio-10.431.090.550.660.540.550.940.720.39

AFCG Growth Runway Model

Standard long term linear growth fade

Multi-Stage Discounted Cash Flow Sandbox

Market Price$3.49
Intrinsic Value$3.49
Market Alignment
Undervalued by 0.1%relative to calculated intrinsic value
9.00%
Exp: 5%5%
i

Growth runway slowdown

This value provides a time window for the growth rate to decline beyond Stage 1 toward the terminal rate. Longer windows are most useful for companies with high growth starting conditions or strong competitive advantages. This option stretches out the growth rate slowdown across 5, 10, or 15-year steps. A high-growth starting condition (exceeding a 25% initial growth rate) automatically applies a curve decay to simulate realistic, rapid market saturation.
i

Terminal growth rate

With long-term inflation between 3-5%, revenue must grow by that baseline to maintain flat real-world market share. This value sets the permanent terminal growth rate to factor into the valuation beyond the growth slowdown runway toward maturity.

3-Stage Financial Runway Horizon

🧠 Perpetuity Horizon Engine (Stage 3: Post-2035)

Terminal FCF Base$0.02B
Perpetuity TV Value$0.31B
Discounted TV (PV)$0.13B
TV Weighting %61.1%
⚠️
Financial Model Disclaimer & Risk Disclosure: This interactive scenario simulator is an educational sandbox provided strictly for informational and analytical research purposes. Core historical financial statements and consensus estimates are sourced directly via Financial Modeling Prep (FMP). All downstream outputs are entirely deterministic, hypothetical projections generated by combining automated mathematical formulas (including linear interpolation and Gaussian bell-curve decay models) with user-selected variables and third-party financial data inputs. Users assume all liability for trading decisions executed based on these sandbox calculations.

📘 Full Research Report

ℹ️

AI-Generated Research: This report is for informational purposes only.

📘 ADVANCED FLOWER CAPITAL INC (AFCG) — Investment Overview

🧩 Business Model Overview

ADVANCED FLOWER CAPITAL INC (AFCG) operates as a specialized capital provider to regulated cannabis operators. The value chain is centered on (1) sourcing opportunities across cultivation, processing, and distribution ecosystems; (2) structuring credit and/or investment positions tailored to borrower cash-flow profiles and asset coverage; and (3) managing downside through documentation, collateral security, covenants, and active workout processes where necessary.

The business is designed to convert underwriting and deal selection into a stream of cash generation, with a focus on protecting capital through secured structures and disciplined credit risk management—rather than relying on equity dilution or pure revenue growth from operating businesses.

💰 Revenue Streams & Monetisation Model

AFCG’s monetisation model is primarily driven by recurring cash-yield components typical of structured lending/investing, including:

  • Interest income and structured yield earned on loans or credit-like instruments.
  • Financing fees associated with origination, amendments, or restructuring activities.
  • Valuation and participation gains from equity-linked positions (where present), which can add upside but remain secondary to credit economics in most credit-focused structures.

Margin drivers are dominated by the quality of the loan book: the spread between funding cost (and required return) and contractual yield, offset by credit losses, provisioning, and collateral recoveries. In a sector where pricing and margins can compress, underwriting discipline and loss management tend to be the most important determinants of long-run profitability.

🧠 Competitive Advantages & Market Positioning

AFCG’s core competitive advantage is best characterized as a credit underwriting and downside-control moat, reinforced by secured lending mechanics and operational expertise in a highly regulated industry.

  • Regulatory-informed credit selection: Cannabis licensing and operational compliance constraints affect borrower durability and collateral viability. Capital providers that consistently underwrite through this complexity can price risk more accurately.
  • Secured-structure discipline (Intangible/Process advantage): Where credit is backed by enforceable security interests and covenants, competitors without comparable legal/servicing capability face higher risk of unrecovered capital.
  • Information advantage & repeat relationships (Switching Costs): Borrowers that have completed documentation, compliance workflows, and monitoring processes may face friction to replace existing lenders. While not a classic “software switching cost,” structured financing relationships can still create practical inertia.

COMPETITIVE BENCHMARKING

Key competitors in providing capital to cannabis businesses include:

  • CannaRoyalty Corp — a royalty/streaming-oriented model tied to operating performance rather than direct secured credit.
  • Privateer-style cannabis investment platforms (and similar private credit/venture vehicles) — equity-leaning and/or opportunistic capital approaches that can dilute downside protection relative to secured lending.
  • Other specialty cannabis financiers and credit funds — frequently overlapping in deal flow but varying materially in underwriting depth and legal enforcement posture.

Contrast vs. AFCG’s positioning: AFCG’s advantage is anchored in credit-style structures and capital preservation relative to royalty/streaming approaches (which depend on product-level revenue outcomes) and equity/opportunistic capital approaches (which typically carry higher dilution and mark-to-market volatility).

🚀 Multi-Year Growth Drivers

Over a 5–10 year horizon, AFCG’s addressable opportunity is shaped by the maturation of regulated cannabis markets and the ongoing need for capital to fund expansion, refinancing, and compliance:

  • Ongoing capital demand despite legalization: Legal markets require continuous investment in licensing, infrastructure, quality systems, and working capital—creating persistent demand for structured financing.
  • Consolidation and refinancing cycles: As markets mature, weaker operators consolidate or exit, while surviving operators refinance at different capital costs. Specialty lenders that can underwrite survivability benefit from these cycles.
  • Shift toward “credit discipline”: As industry volatility persists, borrowers and intermediaries often prefer providers with robust downside frameworks, improving the importance of AFCG’s underwriting process.
  • Portfolio scaling through repeatable underwriting: When underwriting processes are standardized and risk parameters are consistently applied, growth can occur without proportional deterioration in loss rates.

⚠ Risk Factors to Monitor

  • Credit cycle risk: Cannabis businesses can experience margin compression, liquidity stress, and covenant breaches during demand slowdowns.
  • Collateral liquidity risk: Even secured lending can face value erosion if assets (facilities, equipment, licenses) become harder to monetize during stress.
  • Regulatory and legal execution risk: Policy changes, enforcement posture, and jurisdiction-specific licensing constraints can affect recoveries and enforceability of collateral.
  • Concentration risk: Exposure to specific regions, operating segments, or borrower profiles can amplify portfolio-level downside.
  • Funding and interest-rate sensitivity: Cost of capital and required return thresholds can compress spreads if funding costs rise faster than contractual yields.

📊 Valuation & Market View

The market typically values specialty finance/lending models using metrics that emphasize earnings quality and credit performance, often including:

  • EV/Revenue or P/S proxies for scale, though they are less informative when profitability is driven by provisions.
  • P/B or NAV-style thinking when book value and credit reserves are meaningful indicators of downside.
  • Credit-performance drivers that move the needle: net yield after losses, provision adequacy, recovery rates, and the trajectory of delinquency trends.

In this sector, valuation expansion is typically warranted only when investors gain confidence that risk is being underwritten with sustainable loss outcomes—not merely supported by episodic mark-to-market gains.

🔍 Investment Takeaway

AFCG presents a thesis centered on specialty secured lending to regulated cannabis operators, where the primary “moat” is the ability to underwrite and manage downside through a regulatory-knowledge-driven process. The long-term attractiveness depends on consistently translating portfolio selection and enforcement discipline into resilient cash yield after losses, while navigating collateral liquidity and regulatory execution risks. For investors seeking exposure to cannabis market maturation through a financing lens, AFCG’s structural advantage is the emphasis on capital preservation and credit underwriting rather than operating execution.


⚠ AI-generated — informational only. Validate using filings before investing.

📰 Market News & Coverage

15 Stories Available

Real-time institutional reporting and market updates for AFCG.

zacks.com2026-05-07

Advanced Flower Capital Inc. (AFCG) Q1 Earnings and Revenues Beat Estimates

Advanced Flower Capital Inc. (AFCG) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.21 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.16 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.21 per share a year ago.

seekingalpha.com2026-05-07

Advanced Flower Capital Inc. (AFCG) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Advanced Flower Capital Inc. (AFCG) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

globenewswire.com2026-05-07

Advanced Flower Capital Inc. Announces Financial Results for the First Quarter 2026

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla., May 07, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Advanced Flower Capital Inc. (Nasdaq: AFCG) (“AFC,” or the “Company”) today announced its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026.

seekingalpha.com2026-04-08

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globenewswire.com2026-03-30

AFC Expands Revolving Credit Facility with $30 Million Additional Commitment from Existing FDIC-Insured Banking Partner

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla., March 30, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- AFC today announced that it has expanded its senior secured revolving credit facility (“Credit Facility”) to $80 million with an additional $30 million commitment from the facility's Lead Arranger, an FDIC-insured bank with over $75 billion of assets. AFC intends to use availability under the Credit Facility to fund commitments to existing borrowers, originate and participate in commercial loans to U.S. lower middle-market companies in line with its investment strategy, and support working capital and other general corporate purposes. The facility remains expandable to $100 million, subject to lender participation and available borrowing base.

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Head to Head Comparison: DigitalBridge Group (NYSE:DBRG) and AFC Gamma (NASDAQ:AFCG)

DigitalBridge Group (NYSE: DBRG - Get Free Report) and AFC Gamma (NASDAQ: AFCG - Get Free Report) are both finance companies, but which is the superior stock? We will contrast the two businesses based on the strength of their analyst recommendations, earnings, institutional ownership, risk, valuation, dividends and profitability. Volatility and Risk DigitalBridge Group has a beta

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The Hormuz Halt

U.S. equities posted their worst week since October as a historic surge in oil prices fueled by the escalating Iran conflict rattled investor sentiment and revived inflation fears. While the U.S. continued to dominate the military balance over the past week, what remains of the Iranian regime is increasingly wounded and unpredictable, sowing chaos in global energy markets. Oil prices surged to the highest level since 2024 on concerns over long-term disruptions to the Hormuz Strait - the critical energy chokepoint that handles one-fifth of global oil trade.

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New Strong Sell Stocks for March 6th

AFCG, BKV and BCAL have been added to the Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell) List on March 6, 2026.

seekingalpha.com2026-03-04

Advanced Flower Capital Inc. (AFCG) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Advanced Flower Capital Inc. (AFCG) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

zacks.com2026-03-04

Advanced Flower Capital Inc. (AFCG) Reports Q4 Loss, Lags Revenue Estimates

Advanced Flower Capital Inc. (AFCG) came out with a quarterly loss of $0.12 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.04. This compares to earnings of $0.29 per share a year ago.

globenewswire.com2026-03-04

Advanced Flower Capital Inc. Announces Financial Results for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025

Fourth quarter 2025 GAAP net income of $0.9 million or $0.04 per basic weighted average common share and Distributable Earnings ( 1 )  of $(2.8) million or $(0.12) per basi c weighted average common share

zacks.com2026-02-25

Analysts Estimate Advanced Flower Capital Inc. (AFCG) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for

Advanced Flower Capital Inc. (AFCG) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.

📊 AI Financial Analysis

Powered by StockMarketInfo
Earnings Data: Q Ending 2026-03-31

"AFCG reported Q1 2026 results with Revenue of ~$9.81M and Net Income of ~$4.83M (EPS: $0.21) versus Revenue of ~$6.64M and Net Income of ~$0.91M in Q4 2025. YoY, Q1 2026 Revenue grew ~64.7% (from ~$5.96M in Q1 2025) and Net Income increased ~18.7% (from ~$4.07M in Q1 2025). Profitability improved sequentially: Q1 2026 net margin was ~49.2% compared with ~13.8% in Q4 2025, indicating strong margin expansion over the last two quarters. However, reported margins appear volatile across the 4-quarter history (including loss-making quarters), so investors should treat the current margin expansion as a rebound rather than a steady-state trend. Cash flow weakened materially in Q1 2026: operating cash flow was -$30.8M and free cash flow was -$30.8M, while the company reported no buybacks or dividends. Despite negative cash from operations, the balance sheet shows substantial liquidity—cash & equivalents rose to ~$112.7M, up sharply from ~$38.6M in Q4 2025—while total assets increased to ~$394.9M. Total shareholder return is likely muted by the stock’s 1-year decline (-44.7%), with no dividend support (dividend yield ~0). Analyst consensus targets (median ~$13, consensus ~$16, high $25) imply upside versus the ~$2.78 price, but the large price drawdown reduces near-term sentiment."

Revenue Growth

Positive

Q1 2026 Revenue was ~$9.81M, up ~47.7% QoQ (from ~$6.64M in Q4 2025) and up ~64.7% YoY (from ~$5.96M in Q1 2025). Directionally strong rebound versus the prior year, though prior-quarter history is volatile.

Profitability

Neutral

Net Income was ~$4.83M in Q1 2026, up ~428% QoQ (from ~$0.91M) and up ~18.7% YoY (from ~$4.07M). Net margin expanded to ~49.2% from ~13.8% QoQ, but margins have been erratic across the 4-quarter window, suggesting non-recurring/volatile profitability.

Cash Flow Quality

Neutral

Despite strong accounting earnings, Q1 2026 operating cash flow was -$30.8M and free cash flow was -$30.8M. No dividends or buybacks were reported, so shareholder yield depends on price appreciation rather than cash returns.

Leverage & Balance Sheet

Neutral

Liquidity improved sharply: cash & equivalents rose to ~$112.7M and total assets increased to ~$394.9M QoQ. Total liabilities were ~$209.1M with equity ~$185.8M, indicating resilience, though short-term debt remains meaningful.

Shareholder Returns

Neutral

Stock momentum is negative: price is ~$2.78 with 1Y change of -44.7%. Dividend yield is ~0, and there were no buybacks, so total shareholder return is weak.

Analyst Sentiment & Valuation

Positive

Consensus target (~$16) and median (~$13) suggest material upside versus ~$2.78. However, given the large 1-year price decline and cash-flow deterioration, valuation support should be treated as sentiment/expectations rather than fundamentals yet.

Disclaimer:This analysis is AI-generated for informational purposes only. Accuracy is not guaranteed and this does not constitute financial advice.

Fundamentals Overview

Loading fundamentals overview...

AFCG’s Q1 2026 results show modest earnings momentum alongside an active pivot away from cannabis concentration. Net investment income was $0.21/share, lifting NAV per share to $7.90 (+$0.44), supported by NII and ~$0.28/share unrealized appreciation, partially offset by the $0.05 dividend. Operationally, the key event is being in-flight as a BDC, enabling non-real-estate credit deployment: two non-cannabis deals closed in Q1 for ~$90 million, with an additional ~$5 million after quarter end. The company emphasized a lower middle market “vintage” where yields are 100–300 bps higher versus six months ago, yet guided that overall yields should drift into the low double digits as the mix shifts—balanced by improved borrower/sponsor quality and more disciplined covenants. Risks remain concentrated in credit watch items: three loans on non-accrual, ongoing Debbie Holdings liquidation, and Justice Grown now in maturity default amid pending litigation. Management avoided hard remainder-of-year deployment guidance, citing uncertainty entering the new underwriting focus.

AI IconGrowth Catalysts

  • Expanded beyond cannabis as a BDC to pursue lower middle market private credit across multiple industries (healthcare, consumer, manufacturing, services)
  • Lower middle market lending “vintage” opportunity with absolute yields running ~100 to 300 basis points higher than six months ago
  • Strong refinancing/recapitalization demand in target $5 million to $50 million EBITDA borrowers

Business Development

  • Closed two non-cannabis loans in Q1 2026 totaling ~$90 million commitments
  • Subsequent to quarter end: additional ~$5 million of loans closed
  • January 2026: $60 million senior secured credit facility to support the STAT + Mooresby Group combination (STAT and Mooresby backed by Cambridge Capital); facility referenced as $60 million
  • February 2026: committed $30 million to a $60 million senior secured term loan for a leading healthcare benefits platform (funded $20 million at closing; remaining $10 million funded post-quarter end)
  • Cannabis: $41.2 million cannabis loan repayments received during Q1 2026

AI IconFinancial Highlights

  • Net investment income (NII): $0.21 per basic weighted average share for quarter ended 03/31/2026
  • Total investment income: $9.8 million; net investment income: $4.8 million for Q1 2026
  • Declared dividend: $0.05 per share, paid 04/15/2026 to shareholders of record 03/31/2026
  • NAV per share: $7.90 at 03/31/2026, up $0.44 vs prior quarter; increase driven by NII of $0.21/share and unrealized appreciation of ~$0.28/share, offset by $0.05/share dividend
  • Credit performance/portfolio status: three loans on non-accrual; focus on paydowns to redeploy into performing credits
  • Receivership monetization: Debbie Holdings paydown $6.2 million in Q1; total paydown since receivership entry $20.8 million
  • Justice Grown loan matured 05/01/2026 and is in maturity default; company intends to exercise rights/remedies including shareholder and parent guarantees

AI IconCapital Funding

  • Senior secured revolving credit facility expanded to $80 million with an additional $30 million commitment from the lead arranger; expandable to $100 million subject to participation and borrowing base
  • Average drawn balance on credit facility: ~$22 million during the three months ended 03/31/2026
  • Principal outstanding: $356.6 million across 15 loans at 03/31/2026; $370 million across 17 loans as of 05/01/2026
  • Liquidity/deployment posture: dry powder to deploy over the course of the year as repayments occur (no specific total deployment guidance provided)
  • Share repurchase: $5 million share buyback program authorized/put in place by the Board

AI IconStrategy & Ops

  • Completed first quarter operating as a BDC to expand investment flexibility beyond real estate-backed loans
  • Active pipeline strength: over $1.5 billion of deals as of call date
  • Targeting sponsored lower middle market transactions; selectively engages in non-sponsored deals
  • Sweet spot: loans to cash-flowing borrowers with $5 million to $50 million EBITDA
  • Structuring emphasis: fixed charge coverage ratio covenant and cash flow measure; avoids aggressive EBITDA add-backs common in larger upper-market deals
  • Post-quarter operations: STAT + Mooresby transaction supported by January credit facility; healthcare benefits platform term loan partly funded at closing and completed post-quarter

AI IconMarket Outlook

  • Yield guidance directional shift: overall yields expected to move down “a touch” into the low double-digit range on an overall basis while borrower/sponsor quality improves vs current cannabis landscape
  • No hard book-growth or deployment guidance for remainder of 2026; management stated it is hard to provide funding guidance for the rest of the year entering lower middle market

AI IconRisks & Headwinds

  • Justice Grown maturity default (loan matured 05/01/2026) with pending litigation outcomes; management stated it is too early to predict outcomes and will pursue rights/remedies to obtain maximum value
  • Cannabis industry competitive dynamics: industry more competitive than five years ago; although rescheduling helps, competition may pressure asset values/realizations
  • Non-accrual exposure: three loans on non-accrual; reliance on receiving paydowns to redeploy into performing credits
  • Court/liquidation/realization uncertainty: receivership liquidation for Debbie Holdings; realizations depend on liquidation pace and outcomes

Q&A: Analyst Interest

  • Topic: Justice Grown default and litigation pathways: Management (Gabe Katz) confirmed the loan matured on 05/01/2026 and is in maturity default. They stated they are pursuing all rights and remedies to obtain maximum value from the collateral, but emphasized it is too early to predict litigation outcomes or timing given pending disputes.
  • Topic: Forward portfolio yield expectations into lower middle market: Management (Daniel Neville) said investors can use disclosed yield-to-maturities as a guide. With the transition, overall yields are expected to move down slightly into the low double-digit range, offset by materially improved borrower and sponsor counterparty quality versus today’s cannabis lending environment.
  • Topic: Cannabis rescheduling implications vs ongoing non-cannabis strategy: Management (Daniel Neville) highlighted rescheduling as removing 280E liabilities for medical operators and reducing go-forward uncertainty; hearings for adult use later in the year could attract more capital and improve medical asset values. Despite positives, they remain focused on expanding lower middle market lending generally.

Sentiment: MIXED

Note: This summary was synthesized by AI from the AFCG Q1 2026 earnings transcript. Financial data is complex; please verify all metrics against official SEC filings before making investment decisions.

📋 Official Regulatory 10-K / 10-Q SEC Filings

Direct authenticated documentation links to audited SEC database reports for AFCG.

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SEC Filings (AFCG)

© 2026 Stock Market Info — Advanced Flower Capital Inc. (AFCG) Financial Profile