Karman Holdings Inc.

Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) Market Cap

Karman Holdings Inc. has a market capitalization of $6.55B.

Price: $49.44

-4.95 (-9.10%)

Market Cap: 6.55B

NYSE · time unavailable

CEO: Jonathan Rambeau

Sector: Industrials

Industry: Aerospace & Defense

IPO Date: 2025-02-13

Website: https://karman-sd.com

Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) - Company Information

Market Cap: 6.55B|Sector: Industrials

Company Profile

Karman Holdings Inc., through its subsidiary, Karman Space and Defense, engages in designing, testing, manufacturing, and sale of mission-critical systems for missile and defense, space programs, hypersonic, and launch vehicle markets. It also supplies metallic and composite flight hardware and sub-assemblies. In addition, the company provides solutions for payload protection and deployment systems, aerodynamic interstage systems, and propulsion systems. The company was incorporated in 2020 and is based in Huntington Beach, California. Karman Holdings Inc. is a subsidiary of TCFIII Spaceco SPV LP.

Analyst Sentiment

92%
Strong Buy

From 11 Active Polls

1Y Forecast: $110.33

▲ +123.2% Potential Upside

Consensus Target Metrics

Low Bound

$100

Median

$107

High Bound

$130

Average

$110

Price & Moving Averages

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🎯 Wall Street Analyst Intelligence Report

1-Year structural target targets, chart projections, and sentiment maps.

Average 1Y Target
$110.33
▲ +123.16% Upside
Low Target
$100.00
102% Risk
Median Target
$107.00
116% Mid
High Target
$130.00
163% Max
Consensus
Buy
7 / 8 Buys

Consensus Trend Projection

Trailing closures vs. 12-month metrics map.

Analyst Vote Distribution

Aggregate institutional coverage sentiment weights.

📊 Historical Valuation Multiples

Real-time Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) momentum side-by-side with discrete quarterly metrics.

Fiscal QuarterTTMQ1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024
Period EndingTrailing 12MMar 31, 2026Dec 31, 2025Sep 30, 2025Jun 30, 2025Mar 31, 2025Dec 31, 2024Sep 30, 2024Jun 30, 2024
Market Cap ($M)6,55210,6099,6829,5546,6654,4173,9723,9743,976
Enterprise Value ($M)7,34511,40210,23510,0197,1234,7234,4084,409
Price to Earnings Ratio (P/E)218.71340.28313.82312.46244.79-230.16590.00231.48215.91
Price/Earnings-to-Growth Ratio (PEG)27.3830.0853.7616.37-23.6396.25211.8988.16
Price to Sales Ratio (P/S)12.5470.1671.9978.4557.9144.1243.5346.2346.76
Price to Book Ratio (P/B)16.1526.1525.3025.8818.4412.6620.26
Price to Free Cash Flow Ratio (P/FCF)-211.39-1480.422415.07-1396.74-317.41-237.161152.67746.723765.43
Enterprise Value to Sales (EV/Sales)75.4076.1082.2661.8947.1748.3251.29
Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA)53.07300.75273.31305.14235.84244.25177.18170.28
Debt to Equity Ratio5.732.141.531.311.341.202.29

KRMN Growth Runway Model

🟢 Initial high growth rate - forecast is based on a long term bell curve % growth rate

Multi-Stage Discounted Cash Flow Sandbox

Market Price$49.44
Intrinsic Value$0.00
Market Alignment
Overvalued by 135.3%relative to calculated intrinsic value
9.00%
Exp: 28%28%
i

Growth runway slowdown

This value provides a time window for the growth rate to decline beyond Stage 1 toward the terminal rate. Longer windows are most useful for companies with high growth starting conditions or strong competitive advantages. This option stretches out the growth rate slowdown across 5, 10, or 15-year steps. A high-growth starting condition (exceeding a 25% initial growth rate) automatically applies a curve decay to simulate realistic, rapid market saturation.
i

Terminal growth rate

With long-term inflation between 3-5%, revenue must grow by that baseline to maintain flat real-world market share. This value sets the permanent terminal growth rate to factor into the valuation beyond the growth slowdown runway toward maturity.

3-Stage Financial Runway Horizon

🧠 Perpetuity Horizon Engine (Stage 3: Post-2035)

Terminal FCF Base$0.22B
Perpetuity TV Value$4.13B
Discounted TV (PV)$1.75B
TV Weighting %68.8%
⚠️
Financial Model Disclaimer & Risk Disclosure: This interactive scenario simulator is an educational sandbox provided strictly for informational and analytical research purposes. Core historical financial statements and consensus estimates are sourced directly via Financial Modeling Prep (FMP). All downstream outputs are entirely deterministic, hypothetical projections generated by combining automated mathematical formulas (including linear interpolation and Gaussian bell-curve decay models) with user-selected variables and third-party financial data inputs. Users assume all liability for trading decisions executed based on these sandbox calculations.

📘 Full Research Report

ℹ️

AI-Generated Research: This report is for informational purposes only.

📘 KARMAN HOLDINGS INC (KRMN) — Investment Overview

🧩 Business Model Overview

KRMN is best evaluated through the economics of its operating subsidiaries (product/customer concentration, contract structure, pricing power, and working-capital model). A holding-company structure often means the core “how it works” comes from one or two principal revenue-producing units, rather than from the parent entity itself.

To produce a high-conviction, moat-focused write-up (switching costs / network effects / cost advantage / intangibles) and to name the correct peer set, provide (or point me to) the company’s primary business description from its most recent 10-K/annual report, including: (1) industry category, (2) end-markets served, (3) sales channels (direct vs. distributors), and (4) geography of revenue and cost base.

💰 Revenue Streams & Monetisation Model

A sector-specific monetisation model is required to assess recurrence and margin structure. Key items to confirm from filings:

  • Revenue type: product sales vs. services vs. contract-based recurring revenue.
  • Contract terms (duration, renewal/termination, and scope changes).
  • Gross margin drivers (input costs, labor intensity, logistics, and pass-through pricing).
  • Working-capital needs (inventory vs. receivables vs. payables) that influence free cash flow quality.

🧠 Competitive Advantages & Market Positioning

Moat identification depends on the operating model:

  • Switching costs (e.g., integration, workflow lock-in, data gravity)
  • Network effects (multi-sided platforms)
  • Cost advantages (low-cost feedstock, scale purchasing, logistics density)
  • Intangible assets (regulatory approvals, long-term supply relationships, proprietary processes)

Competitive benchmarking (required): the peer set and contrasts must match KRMN’s actual industry. Please confirm the business segment so the write-up can explicitly name 2–3 primary competitors and contrast KRMN’s focus versus those rivals.

🚀 Multi-Year Growth Drivers

Over a 5–10 year horizon, growth should be framed around durable end-market demand and the company’s ability to compound profitability. Once the business segment is confirmed, the analysis will focus on the relevant structural drivers, such as:

  • Market expansion from capacity additions or customer adoption cycles.
  • Share gains supported by cost leadership, workflow fit, or contract structure.
  • Operating leverage from fixed-cost absorption and improved unit economics.
  • Retention/renewal dynamics and the pricing framework (including inflation pass-through).

⚠ Risk Factors to Monitor

Sector-appropriate risks to monitor include:

  • Regulatory: licensing/approval exposure, compliance cost inflation, and rule changes.
  • Technological disruption: product obsolescence or substitutability.
  • Capital intensity: funding needs for inventory, capex, working capital, or rollouts.
  • Concentration risk: key customer/supplier reliance and bargaining power shifts.

📊 Valuation & Market View

Without the industry identification, valuation methodology cannot be made rigorous. Once KRMN’s segment is confirmed, the market approach will be aligned to typical sector multiples (for example, EV/EBITDA for industrials/materials; P/S and net revenue retention for SaaS; P/B and credit metrics for financials).

Drivers that usually move valuation within the correct sector framework will be mapped to: margin trajectory, sustainable cash conversion, and defensibility of demand.

🔍 Investment Takeaway

A high-conviction thesis for KRMN requires verifying the operating segment(s) and then evaluating whether durable economics are driven by measurable moat characteristics—switching costs, network effects, cost advantages, or intangible/regulatory barriers.

Send the company’s primary business description (or the relevant 10-K excerpts) and the top competitors in that segment, and the full moat-driven HTML investment summary (with named peers and a 5–10 year growth/risk view) can be completed precisely and without relying on assumptions.


⚠ AI-generated — informational only. Validate using filings before investing.

📰 Market News & Coverage

15 Stories Available

Real-time institutional reporting and market updates for KRMN.

barrons.com2026-06-05

Jeff Bezos Sees Blue Origin Launching Again This Year. That's Good News for These Stocks.

Jeff Bezos said Blue Origin has a path to resume launches this year after last month's New Glenn explosion, a positive development for AST SpaceMobile, Amazon and supplier Karman.

seekingalpha.com2026-06-05

Karman: The Sell-Off Has Gone Too Far

Karman is undervalued despite best-in-class revenue and EBITDA growth, trading at a discount to high-growth A&D peers. KRMN's robust 2026 guidance, strong Q1 results, and high revenue visibility underpin confidence in continued rapid compounding. Recent catalysts include munitions acceleration agreements, a growing Space and Launch pipeline, and a significant $250M contract pending.

seekingalpha.com2026-06-04

Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) Presents at 46th Annual William Blair Growth Stock Conference Transcript

Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) Presents at 46th Annual William Blair Growth Stock Conference Transcript

businesswire.com2026-06-02

Stefan Knighton Joins Karman Space & Defense as Company's First Chief Information and Artificial Intelligence Officer

HUNTINGTON BEACH, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)---- $KRMN #AUV--Stefan Knighton Joins Karman Space & Defense as Company's First Chief Information and Artificial Intelligence Officer.

gurufocus.com2026-05-29

CORRECTING and REPLACING Karman Space & Defense Provides Operational Data Update in Connection with Launch of Secondary Offering

For the release dated May 28, 2026, third paragraph, the date at the end of first sentence should read March 31, 2025 (instead of March 31, 2026). The update

businesswire.com2026-05-29

CORRECTING and REPLACING Karman Space & Defense Provides Operational Data Update in Connection with Launch of Secondary Offering

HUNTINGTON BEACH, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)---- $KRMN #AUV--Karman Space & Defense Provides Operational Data Update in Connection with Launch of Secondary Offering.

gurufocus.com2026-05-29

Karman Space & Defense Announces Pricing of Upsized Secondary Offering of Common Stock

Karman Space and Defense (NYSE: KRMN) (“Karman Holdings Inc.” or “Karman”), a leader in the rapid design, development and production of critical, next-ge

businesswire.com2026-05-28

Karman Space & Defense Announces Pricing of Upsized Secondary Offering of Common Stock

HUNTINGTON BEACH, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)---- $KRMN #ImpossibleEndsHere--Karman Space & Defense (NYSE: KRMN) (“Karman Holdings Inc.” or “Karman”), a leader in the rapid design, development and production of critical, next-generation system solutions that align with the U.S. Department of War's core mission priorities and the nation's accelerating demand for access to space, today announced the pricing of the previously announced underwritten public offering (the “Offering”) of 14,000,000 shares of its common stock (the.

businesswire.com2026-05-28

Karman Space & Defense Provides Operational Data Update in Connection with Launch of Secondary Offering

HUNTINGTON BEACH, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)---- $KRMN #AUV--Karman Space & Defense Provides Operational Data Update in Connection with Launch of Secondary Offering.

businesswire.com2026-05-28

Karman Space & Defense Announces Launch of Secondary Offering of Common Stock

HUNTINGTON BEACH, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Karman Space & Defense Announces Launch of Secondary Offering of Common Stock.

seekingalpha.com2026-05-27

Smaller Companies Step Up In Global Defense Cycle

A new global defense investment cycle is extending beyond the largest primary defense contractors to include nimbler high-tech defense businesses, and Europe is emerging as a key driver of rising. Defense priorities are shifting from legacy platforms toward faster, more autonomous and more software-enabled unmanned systems, defense electronics and aerospace capabilities. We believe compelling opportunities exist in smaller, specialized companies that form crucial links in the defense supply chain, can create new platforms faster and offer more diversified exposure to defense.

gurufocus.com2026-05-21

SpaceX's Trillion-Dollar IPO Is Turning the Space Sector Into the Trade of 2026 -- Here Are Five Names Already Moving on It

SpaceX's Trillion-Dollar IPO Is Turning the Space Sector Into the Trade of 2026 -- Here Are Five Names Already Moving on It PR

prnewswire.com2026-05-21

SpaceX's Trillion-Dollar IPO Is Turning the Space Sector Into the Trade of 2026 -- Here Are Five Names Already Moving on It

/PRNewswire/ -- Equity Insider News Commentary - The looming SpaceX IPO has done something that almost no other capital markets event in a decade has managed:

seekingalpha.com2026-05-13

Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) Presents at 21st Annual Needham Technology, Media, & Consumer Conference Transcript

Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) Presents at 21st Annual Needham Technology, Media, & Consumer Conference Transcript

fool.com2026-05-13

Why Did Karman Space Stock Drop Today?

Karman Space stock is not cheap, but improving profits make it cheaper than it once was.

📊 AI Financial Analysis

Powered by StockMarketInfo
Earnings Data: Q Ending 2026-03-31

"KRMN reported Q1’26 Revenue of $151.21M and Net Income of $7.79M (EPS $0.0588). On a YoY basis (vs Q1’25), Revenue increased +51.0% (from $100.12M) and Net Income improved from a loss of -$4.80M to +$7.79M. Sequentially (QoQ vs Q4’25), Revenue rose +12.4% ($134.49M to $151.21M) and Net Income was essentially flat (+0.1%; $7.71M to $7.79M). Profitability trends are mixed but improving at the net level: gross margin declined from 39.9% (Q4’25) to 33.1% (Q1’26), while operating income margin eased to 14.2% (from 15.7%). Despite margin pressure, earnings turned strongly positive YoY and remained positive QoQ, supported by improving operating income dollars (+2% QoQ). Cash flow quality is difficult to judge from the provided operating cash flow line (Q1’26 OCF reported as 0). Balance sheet liquidity has improved materially: cash jumped to $73.8M from $34.0M in Q4’25, but leverage remains high with total debt of $867.0M and equity at $510.5M. Shareholder returns look very strong: 1-year price change is +142.8% with no dividends reported and no buybacks indicated. With analyst price targets (consensus ~$115.5) below the current price ($83.59), valuation/expectations appear cautious despite strong momentum."

Revenue Growth

Strong

Revenue +51.0% YoY (Q1’25 to Q1’26) and +12.4% QoQ (Q4’25 to Q1’26), with a clear upward trajectory across the last year.

Profitability

Neutral

Net margin improved YoY (from -4.8% to +5.2%), but QoQ margins contracted (gross margin 39.9%→33.1%; operating margin 15.7%→14.2%). Net income was flat QoQ.

Cash Flow Quality

Caution

Operating cash flow is shown as 0 in Q1’26, limiting confidence in cash generation. Over the period, free cash flow has been volatile and often negative in earlier quarters; no dividends or buybacks reported.

Leverage & Balance Sheet

Neutral

Leverage remains elevated (total debt ~$867M; debt/equity ~1.70), but liquidity improved sharply (cash $73.8M vs $34.0M in Q4’25) and equity rose to $510.5M.

Shareholder Returns

Strong

Strong total shareholder momentum: 1Y price change +142.8%. Dividend yield is 0 and no buybacks are indicated, so returns appear driven by capital appreciation.

Analyst Sentiment & Valuation

Caution

Price targets are below the current price (consensus ~$115.5 vs $83.59 current), implying upside per targets, but extremely high valuation multiples in the ratio set (e.g., P/E extremely elevated) and margin compression near-term keep the score restrained.

Disclaimer:This analysis is AI-generated for informational purposes only. Accuracy is not guaranteed and this does not constitute financial advice.

Fundamentals Overview

Loading fundamentals overview...

Karman delivered a record Q1 2026 with revenue of $151M (+51% YoY) and adjusted EPS of $0.11 (more than double prior year). Margin performance was strong with 42% gross margin and $45M adjusted EBITDA (nearly +50% YoY), supported by scale from new Maritime Defense systems and 2 months of contribution from the January Seemann Composites and MSC acquisitions. Backlog reached an all-time high of >$1B (+61% YoY), reinforcing demand credibility. Management raised FY26 guidance to $720M–$735M revenue and $208.5M–$219.5M adjusted EBITDA (29.4% to midpoint), citing ~90% visibility to the revenue midpoint. The critical narrative is demand ramp certainty from a defense procurement step-function and the receipt of written contingent commitments from four unnamed large customers (4–7 year horizon, >$1B potential). Operations focus on scaling nozzles/UAS launchers via a Salt Lake City facility (initial production targeted for Q4) and integrating Seemann/MSC materials/manufacturing capabilities. Key near-term risk is appropriations variability, though management sees no significant supply constraints.

AI IconGrowth Catalysts

  • Space and Launch revenue up 29% YoY to $44M, supported by Artemis II-related subsystem supply for SLS/Orion and continued launch-provider order timing
  • Hypersonics and Strategic Missile Defense revenue up 19% YoY to $36M driven by strategic program increases
  • Tactical Missiles and IDS revenue up 25% YoY to $45M driven by adoption of advanced drone/loitering munition systems and higher GMLRS output
  • Maritime Defense systems added a new end market; Maritime Defense revenue contributed $26M from submarine and LCAC programs
  • Investment in capacity for nozzles and UAS launchers; Salt Lake City facility expected to reach initial production capability in Q4

Business Development

  • Artemis II moon mission (April 2026): Karman supplied key subsystems for the SLS launch vehicle and the Orion capsule
  • NASA CLPS program: integration of a lunar lander for CLPS highlighted
  • Acquisition closed in January: Seemann Composites and MSC contributed 2 months of revenue in the quarter
  • Written contingent demand commitments received from four of Karman’s largest customers (space and defense sectors); payload protection, propulsion, and space launch core stage products; 4–7 year time horizon; revenue potential >$1B when fully realized (customers not named)

AI IconFinancial Highlights

  • Revenue: $151M, +51% YoY; record quarterly revenue; addition of Maritime Defense end market
  • Gross profit: $64M, +62% YoY; gross margin 42%
  • Net income: $8M vs $5M loss in Q1 fiscal 2025
  • Adjusted EBITDA: $45M, nearly +50% YoY
  • Adjusted EPS: $0.11 vs $0.05 prior-year (more than 100% increase)
  • Backlog: >$1B, +61% YoY (all-time high)
  • Full-year guidance raised: revenue $720M–$735M; non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA $208.5M–$219.5M; midpoint EBITDA margin 29.4%
  • 2026 growth: 54% YoY revenue growth; 47% YoY adjusted EBITDA growth
  • Balance sheet/cost assumptions: statutory tax rate expected at 26.5% for FY26; CapEx ~5% of revenue (~$36M); G&A and interest expense to moderately increase due to Seemann and MSC

AI IconCapital Funding

  • Cash and cash equivalents: $74M at quarter end, up $40M from year-end 2025
  • CapEx: $7M in Q1; guided CapEx ~5% of revenue (~$36M) for FY26
  • Total debt: $758M at SOFR + 2.75%
  • Leverage expectation: decline to ~3x adjusted EBITDA by end of 2026
  • Revolver: increased from $50M to $150M (untapped capacity) to provide added flexibility

AI IconStrategy & Ops

  • Capacity expansion: Salt Lake City facility adds nearly 200,000 sq ft; expected Q4 initial production capability for nozzles and UAS launchers
  • Gulfport site: completing a large logistics and polymer facility to support continued growth
  • Automation/AI: targeted applications of AI to improve business processes; exploring broader AI-driven enterprise transformation
  • Integration: Seemann + MSC integration progressing with expanded advanced materials technologies, IP, and manufacturing capabilities across markets

AI IconMarket Outlook

  • FY26 guidance (raised): revenue $720M–$735M; non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA $208.5M–$219.5M; 29.4% margin to midpoint
  • Visibility: ~90% visibility to midpoint full-year revenue based on strong backlog and Q1 revenue; remaining ~10% expected from anticipated contracts on existing programs
  • Defense budget: President’s FY2027 request published late April; company cites sharp procurement funding increases across Hypersonics/SMD, Tactical Missiles/IDS (drone dominance), Maritime Defense, and Space Force/launch services

AI IconRisks & Headwinds

  • Supply chain constraints: management stated they are engaging suppliers and are not foreseeing significant constraints, but they continue to manage on a regular basis
  • Budget process uncertainty: FY2027 defense budget request is an initial step and could see compromises/changes during multi-month congressional appropriations

Q&A: Analyst Interest

  • Topic: Shape and timing of the missile/strategic framework agreement volume ramps. Management said customer commitments vary by customer/form (letters of intent, draft, long-term agreements). They characterized volumes as increasing consistently YoY with an initial “floor” plus upside as supply-chain ramp plans solidify. They expect conservative customer forecasting early.
  • Topic: Unmanned systems participation and “sweet spot” across drone dominance program capability tiers. Management linked demand strength to Middle East-driven activity and said new Salt Lake City capacity should support higher orders. They indicated opportunities across the spectrum; advanced composite systems/technologies for larger unmanned systems are “a little more yet to be defined.”
  • Topic: Degree of visibility and what includes these framework commitments for FY26 and beyond. Management clarified visibility is a mix: some commitment volumes were already expected for 2026, with modest upside, while most incremental visibility is in FY27 onward. They positioned Q4 funding flow as converting into new contracts, strengthening confidence into 2027.

Sentiment: POSITIVE

Note: This summary was synthesized by AI from the KRMN Q1 2026 earnings transcript. Financial data is complex; please verify all metrics against official SEC filings before making investment decisions.

📋 Official Regulatory 10-K / 10-Q SEC Filings

Direct authenticated documentation links to audited SEC database reports for KRMN.

SEC EDGAR Live Feed
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SEC Filings (KRMN)

© 2026 Stock Market Info — Karman Holdings Inc. (KRMN) Financial Profile