Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL) Market Cap
Carlsmed, Inc. has a market capitalization of $269.5M.
Financials based on reported quarter end 2025-12-31
Price: $10.08
▼ -0.54 (-5.08%)
Market Cap: 269.46M
NASDAQ · time unavailable
CEO: Michael John Cordonnier
Sector: Healthcare
Industry: Medical - Healthcare Information Services
IPO Date: 2018-04-05
Website: https://carlsmed.com
Carlsmed, Inc. (CARL) - Company Information
Market Cap: 269.46M · Sector: Healthcare
Carlsmed, Inc. develops and operates a surgical platform for the treatment of complex adult spinal deformities that enables surgeons to harness clinical intelligence, advanced image recognition, and 3D printing technologies. Its product includes aprevo, a medical platform that makes surgical plans and devices tailored to the precise medical situation of every individual patient. It provides New Technology Add-On Payment (NTAP) reimbursement. The company was incorporated in 2018 and is based in Carlsbad, California.
Analyst Sentiment
Based on 3 ratings
Analyst 1Y Forecast: $20.00
Average target (based on 2 sources)
Consensus Price Target
Low
$18
Median
$20
High
$24
Average
$21
Potential Upside: 105.1%
Price & Moving Averages
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Fundamentals Overview
📊 AI Financial Analysis
Powered by StockMarketInfo"As of December 31, 2025, CARL reported revenue of $15.17M but posted a net loss of $9.2M, resulting in an EPS of -0.25. The company is currently facing substantial challenges, reflected in its negative operating cash flow of $5.32M and free cash flow of -$4.84M. With total assets of $130.12M and total liabilities of $31.25M, CARL's balance sheet appears relatively solid with a net debt position of -$68.38M, indicating surplus cash relative to debt obligations. However, the company's market performance has been negative, with a 1-year price decline of 29.72% and a year-to-date change of -12.38%. Given the absence of dividends and ongoing losses, the shareholder returns outlook remains unfavorable. Analyst price targets suggest a consensus at $22, above the current market price of $10.19, indicating potential upside but also reflecting market skepticism amidst operational struggles and lack of profitability."
Revenue Growth
Minimal revenue growth but significant losses impact overall outlook.
Profitability
Negative net income and EPS indicate ongoing profitability challenges.
Cash Flow Quality
Negative cash flows from operations and free cash flow raise concerns.
Leverage & Balance Sheet
Strong balance sheet with significant excess cash over liabilities.
Shareholder Returns
No dividends paid and significant price decline over the year.
Analyst Sentiment & Valuation
Analyst targets indicate some optimism, though performance is underwhelming.
Disclaimer:This analysis is AI-generated for informational purposes only. Accuracy is not guaranteed and this does not constitute financial advice.
Management delivered strong headline growth (FY2025 revenue $50.5M, +86% YoY) alongside margin expansion (151 bps; Q4 gross margin 76.5%). The operational narrative is anchored by a hard KPI: lead time down to 6 business days (from 8 in Q3 and 20 days a year prior), supported by DPS-driven efficiencies that helped improve Q4 margins. Cervical appears to be the near-term growth lever: NTAP adds up to $21,125 per inpatient procedure, and management says ~10% of users have already been trained, with early hospital adoption positive. However, the Q&A pressure shows up in how the 2026 guide was framed: the $70M–$75M range is described as “prudent” given early ramp dynamics and newly public status. ASP is expected to soften slightly (mid- to high $20,000), and utilization acceleration is dependent on continued surgeon training rather than immediate deep utilization gains.
Growth Catalysts
- Digital production system advancements driving aprevo lead time down to 6 business days (from 8 in Q3 and 20 days a year prior)
- Technology rollout into cervical: aprevo cervical launched in December; ramp expected through 2026
- New product/procedure expansion: first-in-human bilateral posterior aprevo lumbar (limited market evaluation on track for 2H 2026 launch)
- Corra personalized fixation portfolio: FDA 510(k) cleared corra cervical plates; first-in-human at UCSF; anticipated 2H 2026 launch
Business Development
- CMS NTAP approval for aprevo cervical fusion: additional reimbursement up to $21,125 per inpatient cervical procedure
- Surgeon adoption: 101 new fully trained surgeons added in 2025; in Q4 continued surgeon additions
- Training progress: able to train about 10% of total users on cervical shortly after launch
Financial Highlights
- FY2025 revenue $50.5M vs $27.2M in FY2024 (+86% YoY)
- FY2025 gross margin 75.3% vs 73.8% in 2024; Q4 gross margin 76.5% vs 74.7% in Q4 2024
- FY2025 gross margin expansion of 151 bps
- Q4 2025 revenue $15.2M vs $9.4M in Q4 2024 (+61% YoY)
- Q4 gross margin improvement attributed to lower contract manufacturing costs and case design internal efficiencies; digital production efficiencies continuing to help margins
- Q4 OpEx: $20.9M (R&D $5.3M; S&M $10.8M; G&A $4.9M); Q4 GAAP net loss $(8.6)M
- ASP outlook: lumbar ARP stable; 2026 mix expected to result in slightly lower ASP vs 2025; guidance suggests mid- to high $20,000 procedural mix (cervical/lumbar)
Capital Funding
- IPO proceeds: raised over $100M in July 2025
- Balance sheet cash and investments (12/31/2025): $109.9M
- Debt facility: $50M facility with $15.6M outstanding principal as of 12/31/2025; no current plans for additional draws; maturity October 2030
- Operating cash flow: cash used in operating activities $(29.0)M in 2025 vs $(25.5)M in 2024
Strategy & Ops
- Operational excellence milestone: production timeline reduced 25% (6 business days vs 8 in Q4 of last year and 20 days a year prior)
- Manufacturing integration: cervical and lumbar products now on the same production line
- Digital Production System (DPS) investments continuing to drive efficiencies affecting both contract manufacturing/material costs and internal case design costs
Market Outlook
- 2026 revenue guidance: $70M to $75M (44% YoY growth at midpoint vs FY2025)
- Cervical ramp: launch began December; management weeks into launch with positive hospital adoption due to NTAP; expects continued ramp “per our plan” in 2026
Risks & Headwinds
- Guidance posture/risk management in Q&A: management described 2026 guidance as “prudent” due to newly public-company status and early-days cervical/lumbar adoption dynamics
- Utilization ramp risk: new surgeon adds are front-loaded; meaningful utilization uptick expected as training/support continues across the broader base (implies not fully realized procedure volume yet)
- Margin sensitivity: management expects mid-70s gross margins for both lumbar and cervical into 2026 (no quantified expansion; relies on continued DPS-driven efficiencies)
- ASP/mix pressure: 2026 expected to be slightly lower ASP than 2025 driven by a higher cervical share and different reimbursement profile
Sentiment: MIXED
Note: This summary was synthesized by AI from the CARL Q4 2025 earnings transcript. Financial data is complex; please verify all metrics against official SEC filings before making investment decisions.