FirstService Corporation

FirstService Corporation (FSV) Market Cap

FirstService Corporation has a market capitalization of $6.47B.

Price: $140.68

ā–² 1.06 (0.76%)

Market Cap: 6.47B

NASDAQ Ā· time unavailable

CEO: D. Scott Patterson

Sector: Real Estate

Industry: Real Estate - Services

IPO Date: 2015-06-02

Website: https://www.firstservice.com

FirstService Corporation (FSV) - Company Information

Market Cap: 6.47B|Sector: Real Estate

Company Profile

FirstService Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides residential property management and other essential property services to residential and commercial customers in the United States and Canada. The company operates in two segments, FirstService Residential and FirstService Brands. The FirstService Residential segment offers property management services for private residential communities, such as condominiums, co-operatives, homeowner associations, master-planned communities, active adult and lifestyle communities, and various other residential developments. This segment also provides a range of ancillary services, including on-site staffing for building engineering and maintenance, full-service swimming pool and amenity management, and security and concierge/front desk; and financial services comprising cash management, other banking transaction-related, and specialized property insurance brokerage. In addition, this segment offers energy management solutions and advisory services, and resale processing services. The FirstService Brands segment operates and provides essential property services to residential and commercial customers, through five franchise networks; and company-owned locations, including 20 California Closets, 12 Paul Davis Restoration, and 1 CertaPro Painters locations. It provides residential and commercial restoration, painting, and floor coverings design and installation services; custom-designed and installed closet, and home storage solutions; home inspection services; and fire protection and related services. This segment offers its services primarily under the Paul Davis Restoration, First Onsite Restoration, Century Fire Protection, CertaPro Painters, California Closets, Pillar to Post Home Inspectors, and Floor Coverings International brand names. FirstService Corporation was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

Analyst Sentiment

82%
Strong Buy

From 9 Active Polls

1Y Forecast: $182.00

ā–² +29.4% Potential Upside

Consensus Target Metrics

Low Bound

$140

Median

$202

High Bound

$204

Average

$182

Price & Moving Averages

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šŸŽÆ Wall Street Analyst Intelligence Report

1-Year structural target targets, chart projections, and sentiment maps.

Average 1Y Target
$182.00
ā–² +29.37% Upside
Low Target
$140.00
-0% Risk
Median Target
$202.00
44% Mid
High Target
$204.00
45% Max
Consensus
Buy
6 / 9 Buys

Consensus Trend Projection

Trailing closures vs. 12-month metrics map.

Analyst Vote Distribution

Aggregate institutional coverage sentiment weights.

šŸ“Š Historical Valuation Multiples

Real-time Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) momentum side-by-side with discrete quarterly metrics.

Fiscal QuarterTTMQ1 2026Q4 2025Q3 2025Q2 2025Q1 2025Q4 2024Q3 2024Q2 2024
Period EndingTrailing 12MMar 31, 2026Dec 31, 2025Sep 30, 2025Jun 30, 2025Mar 31, 2025Dec 31, 2024Sep 30, 2024Jun 30, 2024
Market Cap ($M)6,4696,3737,1108,6807,9367,5298,1498,2196,843
Enterprise Value ($M)7,6217,5258,5559,9729,2838,9079,4889,5708,209
Price to Earnings Ratio (P/E)39.6379.7044.9137.9643.04671.5062.7333.9548.80
Price/Earnings-to-Growth Ratio (PEG)———16.883.26——4.474.05
Price to Sales Ratio (P/S)1.164.845.066.005.616.025.975.895.27
Price to Book Ratio (P/B)4.524.465.176.486.346.246.867.166.33
Price to Free Cash Flow Ratio (P/FCF)17.46106.5980.2393.6461.30644.20145.30162.9267.80
Enterprise Value to Sales (EV/Sales)—5.716.096.896.567.126.956.866.33
Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA)13.9578.6262.6061.0361.65106.6568.6057.0766.59
Debt to Equity Ratio2.110.961.181.131.241.321.321.371.46

⚔ FSV Growth Runway Model

Standard long term linear growth fade

Multi-Stage Discounted Cash Flow Sandbox

Market Price$140.68
Intrinsic Value$67.76
Market Alignment
Overvalued by 51.8%relative to calculated intrinsic value
9.00%
Exp: 2%2%
i

Growth runway slowdown

This value provides a time window for the growth rate to decline beyond Stage 1 toward the terminal rate. Longer windows are most useful for companies with high growth starting conditions or strong competitive advantages. This option stretches out the growth rate slowdown across 5, 10, or 15-year steps. A high-growth starting condition (exceeding a 25% initial growth rate) automatically applies a curve decay to simulate realistic, rapid market saturation.
i

Terminal growth rate

With long-term inflation between 3-5%, revenue must grow by that baseline to maintain flat real-world market share. This value sets the permanent terminal growth rate to factor into the valuation beyond the growth slowdown runway toward maturity.

3-Stage Financial Runway Horizon

🧠 Perpetuity Horizon Engine (Stage 3: Post-2035)

Terminal FCF Base$0.39B
Perpetuity TV Value$7.30B
Discounted TV (PV)$3.09B
TV Weighting %59.3%
āš ļø
Financial Model Disclaimer & Risk Disclosure: This interactive scenario simulator is an educational sandbox provided strictly for informational and analytical research purposes. Core historical financial statements and consensus estimates are sourced directly via Financial Modeling Prep (FMP). All downstream outputs are entirely deterministic, hypothetical projections generated by combining automated mathematical formulas (including linear interpolation and Gaussian bell-curve decay models) with user-selected variables and third-party financial data inputs. Users assume all liability for trading decisions executed based on these sandbox calculations.

šŸ“˜ Full Research Report

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AI-Generated Research: This report is for informational purposes only.

šŸ“˜ FirstService Corporation (FSV) — Investment Overview

FirstService Corporation (FSV) is a diversified services platform focused on property-related and community management, delivered through a network of operating subsidiaries. The company’s core value proposition is the combination of recurring, labor-enabled service revenue with operational discipline and a disciplined approach to acquisitions. FSV is structured to compound earnings through both organic growth (property management renewals, service expansion, and portfolio growth) and inorganic growth (acquiring complementary service businesses and integrating them into a standardized operating model).

From an investment perspective, FSV is best understood as a ā€œplatformā€ business: a collection of specialized services that share common themes—customer retention driven by contract structures and relationship depth, recurring work tied to long-lived asset ownership, and margin support through process standardization and cross-selling within managed portfolios. The company’s performance is typically influenced by property activity, client retention, wage/benefit dynamics, and the success of integrating acquired businesses without disrupting service delivery or customer relationships.

🧩 Business Model Overview

FSV operates through two principal pillars: (1) management of residential and commercial properties and communities, and (2) complementary services that enhance the lifecycle value of managed properties. The business model is service-led rather than product-led. Revenue is generated by ongoing service delivery—such as governance support, facility operations oversight, maintenance coordination, and customer service—supported by local teams and centralized operational expertise.

A key feature of FSV’s model is the ā€œlocal operating company + corporate platformā€ structure. Operating companies cultivate customer relationships, understand local market needs, and deliver day-to-day services. Corporate-level resources then provide centralized training, technology enablement, standardized reporting, risk management practices, and shared procurement or back-office capabilities where scale advantages exist. This arrangement can help mitigate the typical risks of fragmented services industries: inconsistent service quality, operational inefficiency, and weak management cadence.

FSV also tends to serve as an aggregator for fragmented segments where consolidation opportunities exist. Many property service markets comprise numerous smaller providers with limited scalability or uneven process maturity. FSV’s acquisitions aim to bring these businesses under an operating system designed to improve retention, service quality, and cost efficiency while preserving local execution.

šŸ’° Revenue Streams & Monetisation Model

FSV’s monetisation is primarily driven by contract-based and relationship-based services. Revenue typically reflects a mix of recurring management fees and activity-driven charges associated with service delivery within managed communities or commercial properties. While exact mix varies by operating subsidiary and customer type, the unifying characteristic is that customers outsource ongoing coordination and operational oversight, creating recurring cash flows tied to durable underlying real estate ownership patterns.

A secondary monetisation channel often emerges through ā€œshare-of-walletā€ expansion. Once a provider is embedded within a community or property organization, additional services—such as enhanced administrative support, technology packages, vendor management, or other operational add-ons—can be introduced. This can increase revenue per relationship without necessarily requiring proportional increases in client acquisition costs.

From a margin perspective, FSV’s cost structure is heavily influenced by labor intensity, service complexity, and the efficiency of scheduling, escalation management, and administrative workflows. The company’s platform approach monetises operational improvements by converting best practices into measurable productivity gains—such as reduced rework, improved response times, better utilization of supervisory capacity, and streamlined back-office processes.

🧠 Competitive Advantages & Market Positioning

FSV’s competitive advantages generally derive from three sources: (1) brand and institutional credibility in community/property governance, (2) an operating system that improves service quality and efficiency, and (3) scale benefits from centralized processes and knowledge sharing.

1) Relationship depth and switching costs. In property and community services, switching is not purely contractual; it can involve operational disruption, governance transition complexity, and loss of institutional knowledge. As FSV becomes embedded, the practical costs of switching increase, supporting retention and reducing revenue volatility relative to more transactional services.

2) Platform integration and operational standardization. FSV’s corporate resources—training, playbooks, technology, reporting, risk management—can elevate acquired operators to consistent service standards. This can improve customer satisfaction, reduce operational errors, and create a smoother path to cross-selling additional services.

3) Acquisition capability in fragmented markets. FSV’s track record and infrastructure support disciplined acquisition sourcing, diligence, and integration. In fragmented markets, the quality of integration execution matters as much as deal selection; FSV’s approach aims to preserve local leadership while incorporating scalable back-office and governance processes.

4) Scale in procurement and operational overhead. Even when service delivery is local, centralized capabilities can create leverage in administrative operations, technology costs, compliance frameworks, and certain procurement categories. Over time, scale can expand margins by improving throughput and reducing inefficiency rather than by cutting service quality.

šŸš€ Multi-Year Growth Drivers

FSV’s growth outlook is typically supported by a combination of structural tailwinds in property management and company-specific drivers related to retention, service expansion, and acquisitions.

Organic growth through portfolio expansion and renewals. Property and community management demand is linked to the number of managed units and the frequency/complexity of services required. Growth can come from acquiring new mandates, retaining existing contracts, and increasing services per customer relationship.

Service adjacency and cross-selling. Management platforms can expand their role as customers seek broader operational support. As clients rely more heavily on providers for administrative coordination, maintenance oversight, or governance processes, FSV can increase revenue per relationship.

Operational leverage from technology and process maturity. Over multi-year horizons, consistent training, standardized operating procedures, and workflow automation can improve productivity and reduce per-unit cost. This can enhance operating margins even if revenue growth is moderate.

Inorganic growth via acquisitions. Consolidation remains an important driver in many local property service markets. FSV’s ability to identify businesses with compatible service quality, integrate them effectively, and realize synergies can contribute to compounded growth.

Resilience of recurring services across cycles. While real estate activity and labor markets can affect demand and cost levels, property ownership and community governance typically persist through cycles. Recurring services can provide a stabilizing effect, especially when retention rates remain strong.

⚠ Risk Factors to Monitor

While FSV’s model has structural strengths, several risks warrant ongoing monitoring.

1) Labor cost inflation and wage competition. Service delivery is labor-intensive. Sustained wage pressure, benefits escalation, or difficulty staffing qualified personnel can compress margins if pricing and productivity do not offset increased costs.

2) Integration execution risk. Acquisitions add growth but can introduce risks related to cultural integration, process adoption, customer retention during transition, and the realization of cost synergies. Disruptions can affect service quality and contract renewal dynamics.

3) Contract and customer concentration dynamics. Some revenue streams may be influenced by contract terms and renewal cycles. If a material portion of revenue is tied to specific customer groups or if contract terms weaken, revenue visibility could decrease.

4) Regulatory and compliance complexity. Property and community services may face evolving regulatory requirements relating to governance, consumer protection, licensing, privacy, and safety. Compliance costs and operational changes could rise.

5) Technology and cybersecurity. Platform operations often rely on customer and employee data systems, workflow platforms, and communications channels. Cybersecurity incidents or technology outages can create reputational damage and operational disruption.

6) Interest rate and real estate cycle effects. While FSV’s recurring model can be relatively resilient, property transaction activity can still influence certain demand components and can affect client willingness or ability to fund services, especially for discretionary enhancements or capex-like service categories.

7) Leverage and capital allocation discipline. The pace and funding of acquisitions can influence leverage. Maintaining balance sheet resilience while investing in platform capabilities is critical for long-term compounding.

šŸ“Š Valuation & Market View

FSV is frequently valued as a compounder of cash flows from recurring services with an acquisition-driven growth engine. For valuation analysis, investors typically focus less on a ā€œsingle-quarter earnings snapshotā€ and more on sustainable free cash flow generation, normalized margins, retention durability, and the quality of incremental investments.

Approach 1: Cash-flow compounding and margin durability. A valuation framework that estimates long-run revenue growth, sustainable operating margins, and reinvestment needs can be useful. Key inputs include retention rates, pricing power relative to labor costs, and the degree of operating leverage achievable through process standardization.

Approach 2: Multiple-based framing against service peers. In services and property management-adjacent categories, market valuations often reflect expectations for durability, growth, and risk profile. A premium can be justified for platform characteristics—such as proven integration, consistent retention, and scalable operating systems—while discounts may emerge when margins are pressured or acquisition execution is perceived as less reliable.

Approach 3: Acquisition-driven ā€œearnings qualityā€ assessment. Because FSV’s growth includes inorganic components, investors should evaluate how much incremental earnings come from organic retention versus acquisitions, and whether acquired margins are sustained or fall after integration. High-quality acquisitions tend to support stable-to-improving returns on capital.

In practical terms, the market view generally centers on whether FSV can maintain a resilient recurring revenue base, expand services per relationship, and continue integrating acquisitions without undermining service quality. Valuation tends to compress when labor or integration headwinds persist and expands when operational improvements and retention trends support confidence in long-term compounding.

šŸ” Investment Takeaway

FirstService Corporation offers an investment proposition anchored in recurring service revenue, embedded customer relationships, and a platform model designed to standardize execution across local operators. Its multi-year growth potential is tied to retention and portfolio expansion, service adjacency and cross-selling, and disciplined acquisitions in fragmented markets. Operational leverage—achieved through technology, training, and process maturity—can further strengthen profitability over time.

The primary debate for investors is the balance between growth and execution risk: the capacity to integrate acquisitions effectively, preserve service quality, manage labor cost dynamics, and sustain durable margins. A well-constructed investment case typically emphasizes cash-flow durability, reinvestment discipline, and evidence that the operating system continues to translate into measurable productivity and retention outcomes.

For long-horizon investors seeking exposure to recurring, human-capital-driven services with platform characteristics and consolidation optionality, FSV can be a compelling compounder—provided underwriting remains sensitive to integration execution, staffing and wage conditions, and capital allocation discipline.


⚠ AI-generated — informational only. Validate using filings before investing.

šŸ“° Market News & Coverage

15 Stories Available

Real-time institutional reporting and market updates for FSV.

prnewswire.com•2026-06-05

BH3 Management and U.S. Development Select FirstService Residential to Manage Viceroy Residences Clearwater Beach Florida

FirstService Residential tapped to deliver property management and lifestyle services for Clearwater Beach's first new luxury waterfront condominium in over a decade CLEARWATER BEACH, Fla., June 5, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- FirstService Residential, North America's leading property management company, has been selected as the management partner for Viceroy Residences Clearwater Beach, a landmark luxury condominium development at 551 Gulf Boulevard, further expanding its portfolio of premier luxury communities along Florida's Gulf Coast.

globenewswire.com•2026-06-02

FirstService Announces Amendment to Maximize Size of Normal Course Issuer Bid and Entering Into of Automatic Share Purchase Plan

TORONTO, June 02, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- FirstService Corporation (TSX and NASDAQ: FSV) (ā€œFirstServiceā€) announced today that, further to its previously announced acceptance by the Toronto Stock Exchange (the ā€œTSXā€) of a notice filed by FirstService of its intention to make a normal course issuer bid (the ā€œNCIBā€) with respect to its outstanding common shares, it has received approval from the TSX to amend the NCIB (the ā€œAmended NCIBā€), effective on June 4, 2026. The Amended NCIB will increase the maximum number of common shares that may be repurchased from 1,600,000, representing 3.9% of the ā€œpublic floatā€ of common shares as of August 12, 2025, to 4,118,199, representing 10% of the ā€œpublic floatā€ of common shares as of August 12, 2025, the maximum amount allowable under the rules of the TSX. No other terms of the NCIB have been amended. Under the NCIB, as of May 31, 2026, FirstService has repurchased for cancellation an aggregate of 931,182 common shares at an average price of US$132.38 per share (or a total of US$123.3 million).

gurufocus.com•2026-05-30

Mirum Pharmaceuticals Announces New Data from Rare Liver Disease Programs Presented at the EASL International Liver Congress 2026

Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq: MIRM), a leading rare disease company, today announced new data from its rare liver disease programs. Late-breaking result

prnewswire.com•2026-05-28

Residences at the Stoneleigh featured in innovative program with FirstService Residential and Forbes Travel Guide

The iconic address in Uptown Dallas is among a select group introducing a new approach to property management modeled after leading hospitality brands. DALLAS, May 28, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Residences at the Stoneleigh, a luxury residential tower in Uptown Dallas, is one of the seven inaugural residences participating in a program to bring hospitality-level service standards into luxury residential living as part of FirstService Residential's collaboration with ATELIER CX, the consulting division of Forbes Travel Guide.

globenewswire.com•2026-05-28

Century Fire Protection Acquires GSC Fire & Security and Titan Fire Protection

Tuck-Under Acquisitions Add Scale and Broaden Service Capabilities in Existing Markets Tuck-Under Acquisitions Add Scale and Broaden Service Capabilities in Existing Markets

prnewswire.com•2026-05-27

FirstService Residential collaborates with Forbes Travel Guide to set a new standard in luxury residential living

A comprehensive initiative applying hospitality ‑ driven service standards from the world's best hotels to residential properties DANIA BEACH, Fla., May 27, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- FirstService Residential, the leading property management company in North America, has engaged ATELIER CX, the consulting division of Forbes Travel Guide ("FTG"), to establish an elevated benchmark for residential high-rise living.

businesswire.com•2026-05-20

Roofing Corp of America Enters Kansas City Market Through Schefers Roofing Partnership

ATLANTA--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- #CommercialRoofing--Roofing Corp of America today announced its partnership with Kansas City-based Schefers Roofing, marking RCA's 16th acquisition since its founding in December 2020. The partnership expands RCA's presence in the Midwest and brings the company's total footprint to 27 branch locations nationwide. Founded in 1995, Schefers Roofing is a commercial roofing contractor serving Missouri, Northern Arkansas, and surrounding markets, with capabilities spanning commercial roofing,.

prnewswire.com•2026-05-19

FirstService Residential Announces Key Leadership Changes: Brooke Rosenthal Named Vice President of New Development; Stuart Spiro Appointed Vice President of the Condo/Co-op Werny Division

NEW YORK, May 19, 2026 /PRNewswire/ --Ā FirstService Residential, New York's leading residential property management company, announced two significant leadership promotions that strengthen its executive team and reinforce its continued commitment to delivering exceptional service across its growing portfolio. Brooke Rosenthal has been promoted to Vice President of New Development, and Stuart Spiro has been appointed Vice President of the Condo/Co–op Werny Division.

prnewswire.com•2026-05-18

Red Apple Group Selects FirstService Residential to Manage The Residences at 400 Central

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla., May 18, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- FirstService Residential, North America's leading property management company, has been selected as the management partner for The Residences at 400 Central, further expanding its portfolio of premier luxury communities across Florida.

prnewswire.com•2026-05-16

Kolter Urban Selects FirstService Residential to Manage Art House St. Petersburg

FirstService Residential to deliver property management and lifestyle services to this striking new downtown St. Petersburg luxury high-rise ST. PETERSBURG, Fla.

prnewswire.com•2026-05-13

Maria Hurst Appointed Senior Vice President, Condo/Coop Werny Division of FirstService Residential New York

NEW YORK, May 13, 2026 /PRNewswire/ --Ā As part of its continued growth, FirstService Residential, New York's leading property management company, has elevated Maria Hurst to the role of Senior Vice President of the Condo/Coop Werny Division. In her new role, Hurst will oversee a diverse and expansive portfolio of condominium and cooperative properties while providing executive leadership, operational oversight, and strategic guidance to the division's robust property management teams.

prnewswire.com•2026-05-11

FirstService Residential Elevates Jeffrey Poirot to Senior Vice President, New Development Group

NEW YORK, May 11, 2026 /PRNewswire/ --Ā Jeffrey Poirot of FirstService Residential steps into a new chapter of leadership, assuming the role of Senior Vice President of the New Development Group. In this elevated role, Poirot will continue to guide the company's growing portfolio of luxury residential and mixed-use projects, while expanding its advisory and pre-development services for some of the most ambitious real estate developments in New York City.

prnewswire.com•2026-05-07

FirstService Residential expands Austin high-rise portfolio with The Code

AUSTIN, Texas, May 7, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- FirstService Residential, North America's leading community management company, has assumed management of The Code, a design-forward hotel residence community located in Austin's Zilker neighborhood. Developed by Pearlstone Partners in collaboration with AvantStay, The Code blends fully furnished private residences with hospitality-style services and amenities.

prnewswire.com•2026-05-07

FirstService Residential Illinois Donates $60,000 to Lurie Children's Hospital

CHICAGO, May 7, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- FirstService Residential Chicago is proud to announce a $60,000 donation to Ann & Robert H. Lurie Children's Hospital of Chicago.

globenewswire.com•2026-05-06

FirstService Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend on Common Shares

TORONTO, May 06, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- FirstService Corporation (TSX: FSV; NASDAQ: FSV) ("FirstService") announced today that its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly cash dividend on the outstanding Common Shares of US$0.305 per Common Share. The dividend is payable on July 7, 2026 to holders of Common Shares of record at the close of business on June 30, 2026. The dividend on Common Shares is an "eligible dividend" for Canadian income tax purposes.

Fundamentals Overview

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FSV finished 2025 with upside on EPS and margins (+40 bps EBITDA margin to 10.2%), despite top-line headwinds (revenue +5%). Management’s tone in prepared remarks is constructive, but the Q&A shows clear near-term constraints: Q1 revenue support is storm-driven and quantified only as ā€œmodestly up,ā€ while many roofing conditions remain competitive and margin-compressing. The most concrete risk is Brands segment softness—Q4 margin down 110 bps and Q1 Brands margin expected to decline—offsetting Residential efficiency gains that management says are largely lapping prior offshoring/AI/call-center levers rather than producing fresh margin step-ups. On capital allocation, management did not commit to buybacks (ā€œnot something…discussedā€), implying flexibility without aggressive shareholder return. Overall, the call balances stable demand signals (backlogs, bids, wallet share) against measurable operational drags: pricing-related contract non-renewals in Residential amenity/labor, muted roofing demand, and weather-driven volatility (named storms: ~$60M in prior year quarter vs ~zero this quarter).

AI IconGrowth Catalysts

  • FirstService Residential organic growth at 5% in Q4; management expects mid-single-digit organic growth to continue in 2026
  • FirstService Brands: Century Fire high single-digit organic growth and >10% revenue growth in Q4; expectation of another year of 10% growth or more
  • Restoration: pickup in claim activity during Q4 (Canadian operations) helped partially offset year-over-year declines
  • Roofing: tuck-under acquisitions provided reported revenue growth (but organic down >5%); backlog stabilized and sequential improvement expected
  • Winter storm mitigation activity: uptick in activity over the last week from expansive winter storm supporting expectation that Q1 revenues modestly up YoY

Business Development

  • FirstService Residential: net contract wins vs losses; multiple contract renewals/terminations driven by pricing (custodian/front desk concierge labor; some multifamily apartment owner contracts not renewed at year-end)
  • Restoration brands: Paul Davis and First On-Site benefited from increased claim activity; mention that named storms historically drive wallet-share/volume (but 2025 named-storm contribution <2% of restoration revenue)
  • Century Fire: beneficial mix exposure to multifamily/warehouse activity and positive exposure to data center construction; long-term relationships with a few large general contractors in these build-outs
  • M&A: tuck-under acquisition focus; potential annual franchise pulls of ~1/year for California Closets (management expectation) and ~1-2/year for Paul Davis franchises; willingness to consider larger acquisitions but with caution on valuation

AI IconFinancial Highlights

  • Q4 consolidated revenue $1.38B (+1% YoY); adjusted EBITDA $138M flat YoY with EBITDA margin 9.9% vs 10.1% prior year (-20 bps)
  • Q4 adjusted EPS $1.37 vs $1.34 prior year (+2% YoY); management states results were modest vs Q3 expectation
  • Full-year 2025: revenue $5.5B (+5%); adjusted EBITDA $563M (+10%); EBITDA margin 10.2% vs 9.8% (+40 bps)
  • Full-year adjusted EPS $5.75 (+15% YoY)
  • FirstService Residential (Q4): revenue $563M (+8%); EBITDA $51.5M (+12%); margin 9.1% vs 8.8% (+30 bps)
  • FirstService Brands (Q4): revenue $820M (-3%); organic -7%; EBITDA $88.5M (-12%); segment margin 10.8% vs 11.9% (-110 bps)
  • Corporate costs: significantly lower vs prior year in Q4 and full-year; attributed largely to noncash foreign exchange reversals in 2024
  • Interest costs: expected lower throughout 2025 due to lower debt and declining interest rates (used as a key driver of EPS growth)
  • Named storms: Q4 2025 named-storm revenues ~zero vs ~$60M last year; FY named storms <2% of total restoration revenue (vs historical average >10% of restoration revenue since 2019)

AI IconCapital Funding

  • Operating cash flow Q4: $155M (+33% YoY); cash from operations FY: >$445M (+56% vs 2024)
  • CapEx: $128M in 2025; 2026 CapEx expected ~ $140M (increase proportionate to business growth)
  • Acquisition spending FY 2025: $107M (selective and disciplined)
  • No disclosed buyback activity: asked about buyback; management stated it is 'not something that we've discussed' (no amount provided)
  • Balance sheet: leverage 1.6x at 2025 year-end; net debt/adjusted EBITDA down from 2.0x prior year-end
  • Liquidity: cash on hand plus undrawn RCF capacity aggregating to $970M

AI IconStrategy & Ops

  • Margin outlook: consolidated EBITDA margin expected relatively flat in 2026 vs 10.2% 2025
  • Q1 margin commentary: residential margins expected roughly in line with full-year; Brands segment expected margin decline in Q1 (driving 'sort of flat EBITDA' with revenue growth)
  • Residential operating hurdle: no meaningful pricing power; growth must come from improving lead-to-estimate, close ratios, and average job size; management noted no 'baking in' of additional efficiency into 2026 baseline
  • Roofing operating conditions: demand muted; new commercial construction (outside data center/power) down significantly; reroof side experiencing tighter customer capex budgets and delays on larger projects; competitive intensity increased (fewer opportunities, more bidders) compressing gross margins
  • Restoration backlog: year-end backlog down (soft Q1 implied), but mitigation activity from winter storm should modestly lift Q1 revenues

AI IconMarket Outlook

  • FirstService Residential: Q1 organic growth expected at bottom end of mid-single-digit range (3% to 4%); management expects mid-single-digit organic growth for the year excluding amenity/ancillary declines
  • Consolidated outlook (Q1 2026): revenue growth mid-single-digit range
  • Consolidated EBITDA (Q1 2026): roughly in line with Q1 2025
  • Full-year 2026: EBITDA growth in high single digits (similar to or slightly better than revenue growth); consolidated EBITDA margin relatively flat vs 10.2% 2025
  • Roofing (Q1): revenues up mid-single-digit vs prior year, but approximately flat organically
  • Roofing (full year): expects modest organic growth with sequential improvement quarter-to-quarter
  • Restoration (Q1): difficult to quantify storm-related effects; based on activity levels expects modestly up results YoY due to quick-response mitigation; reconstruction/longer cycle unknown

AI IconRisks & Headwinds

  • FirstService Residential amenity/ancillary pressure early 2026: declines in amenity management services (pool construction/renovation; impacted by broader roofing/home services economic headwinds) and custodian/front desk concierge labor; several contracts with multifamily owners not renewed at year-end primarily due to pricing
  • Management impact statement: cancellations expected to impact revenue but 'have little impact on profitability'
  • Brands margin pressure: brands segment margin down 110 bps in Q4; 2026 flat margin guidance driven by roofing competitive gross margin compression and Q1 brands margin decline
  • Roofing competition/gross margin compression: more companies bidding and compressed gross margins; near-term relief not expected until new construction uptick
  • Macro/weather variance risk: Q4 named-storm revenue ~zero vs ~$60M last year; FY named-storm revenues <2% of restoration revenue (weather-driven variability remains a core swing factor)
  • Cold-weather/winter freeze: some regions/areas 'still frozen' at time of call; activity thaw timing uncertain and reconstruction timing/volume unknown
  • Valuation/transaction risk: multiples remain high; slower deal market with opportunities pulled/delayed

Sentiment: MIXED

Note: This summary was synthesized by AI from the FSV Q4 2025 earnings transcript. Financial data is complex; please verify all metrics against official SEC filings before making investment decisions.

šŸ“‹ Official Regulatory 10-K / 10-Q SEC Filings

Direct authenticated documentation links to audited SEC database reports for FSV.

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SEC Filings (FSV)

Ā© 2026 Stock Market Info — FirstService Corporation (FSV) Financial Profile