Genius Sports Limited

Genius Sports Limited (GENI) Market Cap

Genius Sports Limited has a market capitalization of $1.11B.

Financials based on reported quarter end 2025-12-31

Price: $4.50

β–Ό -0.15 (-3.23%)

Market Cap: 1.11B

NYSE Β· time unavailable

CEO: Mark Locke

Sector: Communication Services

Industry: Internet Content & Information

IPO Date: 2020-10-05

Website: https://www.geniussports.com

Genius Sports Limited (GENI) - Company Information

Market Cap: 1.11B Β· Sector: Communication Services

Genius Sports Limited develops and sells technology-led products and services to the sports, sports betting, and sports media industries. It offers technology infrastructure for the collection, integration, and distribution of live data of sports leagues; streaming solutions comprising technology, automatic production, and distribution for sports to commercialize video footage of their games; and end-to-end integrity services to sports leagues, such as full-time active monitoring technology, which uses mathematical algorithms to identify and flag suspicious betting activity in global betting markets, as well as a full suite of online and offline educational and consultancy services. The company also provides live sports data collection; pre-game and in-game odds feeds; risk management services, including customer profiling, monitoring of incoming bets, automated acceptance and rejection of bets, and limit setting; live streaming services; creation, delivery, and measurement services for personalized online marketing campaigns; and fan engagement widgets for digital publishers that offer live game statistics and betting-related content. The company is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Analyst Sentiment

80%
Strong Buy

Based on 19 ratings

Analyst 1Y Forecast: $12.75

Average target (based on 3 sources)

Consensus Price Target

Low

$5

Median

$12

High

$17

Average

$12

Potential Upside: 168.9%

Price & Moving Averages

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πŸ“˜ Full Research Report

ℹ️

AI-Generated Research: This report is for informational purposes only.

πŸ“˜ GENIUS SPORTS LTD (GENI) β€” Investment Overview

🧩 Business Model Overview

Genius Sports Ltd (GENI) operates at the intersection of sports, data, and technology, specializing in the collection, processing, and distribution of sports data, live video, and technology solutions to the sports, media, and regulated betting markets. Its global platform empowers sports leagues and federations to capture official data in real time, digitize their competitions, distribute content, and maximize commercial returns. GENI’s offerings extend throughout the sports ecosystem, connecting rights holders, sportsbooks, broadcasters, and brands. The business model is fundamentally service-oriented and platform-based, characterized by long-term data rights partnerships with sports leagues and federations. GENI leverages proprietary technology and software tools to deliver value-added services that enhance fan engagement and commercial monetization, seeking to be a mission-critical partner for both rights holders and betting operators.

πŸ’° Revenue Streams & Monetisation Model

GENI’s revenue streams are diversified across three main verticals: - **Betting Technology, Content & Services:** The largest revenue segment, this division delivers official data feeds, odds services, risk management, and trading tools to regulated sportsbook operators globally. Services include both direct fees for data access and recurring revenue tied to transaction volumes and user activity on partner betting platforms. - **Media & Engagement:** GENI offers audience engagement, marketing, and advertising products for sportsbooks, media outlets, and brands. This is supported by proprietary data, programmatic ad tools, and live video products, allowing cross-platform content distribution and targeted communications. - **Sports Technology & Services:** GENI partners with sports leagues and federations to provide data capture software, integrity monitoring, and digital infrastructure, often under exclusive or long-term contracts. Revenue derives from technology licensing, data management services, and customized solutions. This revenue model blends recurring subscription and contract-based income with usage-driven fees, creating a resilience to seasonal swings. Long-term data rights deals form a unique backbone, providing a predictable and recurrent revenue base. Ancillary β€œadjacent” services such as streaming, programmatic marketing, and analytics offer further monetization levers.

🧠 Competitive Advantages & Market Positioning

GENI commands a strong position in the global sports data and technology ecosystem, underpinned by: - **Official Data Rights Portfolio:** GENI maintains exclusive or semi-exclusive rights relationships with numerous sports leagues and federations, including key partnerships in football (soccer), basketball, and other major sports worldwide. These agreements create high barriers to entry and defensible data ownership. - **Integrated Technology Stack:** The company’s proprietary suite of data collection, analytics, and distribution technologies enables rapid, reliable data flow at scale. GENI’s end-to-end infrastructure supports data accuracy and operational integrity, differentiating it in regulated environments. - **Regulatory Alignment & Integrity:** GENI’s global operations are structured for compliance with evolving sports betting regulatory frameworks, including robust data integrity, anti-match-fixing, and responsible gaming platforms β€” critical for servicing legal sportsbook operators and maintaining trust with leagues. - **Global Reach & Diversified Relationships:** GENI services betting operators, sports leagues, and media partners across six continents, reducing customer concentration risk and positioning the platform for scalable international expansion. - **First-Mover & Network Effects:** Early investments in official data rights and multi-year contracts foster network effects, with each additional rights deal or operator partnership enhancing market stickiness and competitive moats.

πŸš€ Multi-Year Growth Drivers

Long-term expansion prospects for GENI are supported by several secular and company-specific catalysts: - **Regulated Sports Betting Proliferation:** The ongoing legalization and normalization of sports betting globally β€” especially in North America, Latin America, and parts of Europe and Asia β€” increases demand for real-time data, content, and technology partners. - **Content Digitization & Fan Engagement:** As sports consumption becomes increasingly digital and interactive, leagues, brands, and media need more granular data and innovative engagement tools; GENI’s platform is uniquely positioned to serve this demand. - **Expansion of Official Data Ecosystem:** More leagues worldwide are recognizing the value of controlling and commercializing their official data and statistics, driving new partnership opportunities for GENI. - **Cross-Selling & Product Layering:** GENI’s integrated offerings enable the company to cross-sell media, technology, and analytics services into its existing partner base, raising average revenue per customer over time. - **M&A & Strategic Partnership:** In a fragmented global landscape, GENI has opportunities to acquire complementary technology providers, data platforms, or regional operators β€” consolidating its leadership and expanding addressable markets. - **Data Monetization & New Verticals:** Innovations in data science, predictive analytics, and machine learning unlock new ways to monetize proprietary sports data, from dynamic odds generation to personalized fan experiences.

⚠ Risk Factors to Monitor

While GENI operates in a high-growth space, key risks include: - **Regulatory Risks:** Sports betting is subject to evolving legal frameworks; changes in regulation, tax regimes, or data privacy standards could impact GENI’s addressable market or operating model in key geographies. - **Contract Dependance & Renewal:** A significant portion of GENI’s value is tied to the acquisition and maintenance of official data rights; loss, non-renewal, or unfavorable renegotiation of these agreements would materially impact revenue and competitive position. - **Customer Concentration:** While diversified, certain partnerships with major betting operators or leagues may contribute outsized revenue shares, creating exposure to partner-specific headwinds or industry shifts. - **Margin Pressure:** Increasing competition, pricing pressure on data rights, or rising technology and compliance costs may compress margins unless offset by scale efficiencies or product differentiation. - **Technology & Operational Risks:** The mission-critical nature of real-time data provision entails risk of outages, data integrity failures, or cyber-attacks, which could damage reputation or breach contractual obligations. - **Litigation & IP Concerns:** The sports data market has a history of intellectual property disputes, especially around proprietary data ownership and distribution.

πŸ“Š Valuation & Market View

GENI is often benchmarked against a select group of digital sports data, B2B gaming technology, and content platform peers. Key valuation metrics include enterprise value relative to revenue (EV/Sales), given high reinvestment for growth and limited immediate profitability. GENI’s valuation tends to reflect: - **Premium for Official Data Rights:** The company’s controlled portfolio of exclusive and official rights justifies a multiple above commoditized or gray-market data providers. - **Growth Discount Rate:** The valuation absorbs company and sector volatility, balancing long-horizon compounder potential with sensitivity to regulatory swings or execution risk. - **Transition to Profitability:** Demonstrated scalability, margin expansion, and recurring revenue growth will be critical to realization of long-term investor value; the path to positive free cash flow remains a focal point. - **Industry Leadership Premium:** The market assigns value for category leadership and network effects but remains watchful of competition and rights auction cycles. Consensus equity views tend to cluster around the sustainability of GENI’s top-line expansion, the durability of rights contracts, and the eventual margin profile post-investment cycle.

πŸ” Investment Takeaway

GENIUS SPORTS LTD represents a unique pure-play exposure to the essential infrastructure of the digitizing global sports ecosystem. Its alignment with the secular growth of regulated sports betting, the transition to official data as a new content category, and the digitization of sports consumption positions it as a long-term structural beneficiary. The company’s defensible data rights portfolio, integrated technology, and broad customer base create meaningful competitive advantages; however, the reliance on key rights contracts and regulatory risks demand ongoing vigilance. For investors seeking multi-year growth in sports technology, data, and legalized gaming, GENI offers a scalable, platform-centric business model with strategic leverage to global trends β€” albeit with execution and regulatory variables to monitor closely.

⚠ AI-generated β€” informational only. Validate using filings before investing.

Fundamentals Overview

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πŸ“Š AI Financial Analysis

Powered by StockMarketInfo
Earnings Data: Q Ending 2025-12-31

"For the year ending December 31, 2025, GENI reported revenue of $240.5M, but posted a net loss of $20.6M, translating to an EPS of -$0.0795. The company demonstrated positive operating cash flow of $88.95M and accessed a free cash flow of $84.02M, indicating effective cash management despite its net loss. On the balance sheet, total assets stand at $1.13B and total liabilities at $405.8M, with a net debt position of -$250.06M, suggesting a healthy capital structure and strong liquidity. However, the market performance is troubling, with a 1-year price decline of nearly 59% and no dividends paid, challenging shareholder returns. Considering the overall financial profile, growth prospects remain uncertain amid profitability issues and declining stock performance, necessitating a careful approach to valuation and investment strategies."

Revenue Growth

Fair

Revenue of $240.5M shows solid growth, but needs consistent performance.

Profitability

Neutral

Negative net income indicates ongoing challenges with profitability.

Cash Flow Quality

Good

Strong operating and free cash flow highlight good cash management.

Leverage & Balance Sheet

Positive

Healthy balance sheet with low debt levels and strong equity base.

Shareholder Returns

Neutral

Significant stock decline and no dividends paid reduce shareholder returns.

Analyst Sentiment & Valuation

Caution

Market performance raises concerns, necessitating cautious valuation outlook.

Disclaimer:This analysis is AI-generated for informational purposes only. Accuracy is not guaranteed and this does not constitute financial advice.

Management’s message is upbeat on growth and margins (FY 2025 +31% revenue and 20% EBITDA margin; 2026 organic guidance +22% revenue and +36% EBITDA; Legend accretion in Q2 2026 with ~30% EBITDA margin and ~50% FCF conversion). However, the Q&A shows where the pressure points are. On free cash flow, management admits a ~$30M swing in 2025 from nonrecurring exceptional legal/litigation expense, and refuses to pre-commit to the nature or size of any 2026 one-timers (β€œtoo early” as they focus on growing the cash balance). On media, the incremental ramp from the biggest agency relationships is explicitly muted in the near term. Analysts also probe prediction-market spend and ad-tech channel mix; management frames prediction markets as already flowing through campaigns and expects continued participation, but remains non-committal on exact self-service vs ecosystem splits. Net: confident on operating levers, but cash-flow and litigation timing remain the real unknowns.

AI IconGrowth Catalysts

  • Betting: BetVision expansion with NFL coverage (and engagement ramp driving in-play wagering)
  • Media: new/expanded programmatic + partner launches ramping (PMG, Publicis, WPP cited; Magnite integration)
  • March Madness monetization via moment engine (test campaigns this year; more intensity next year)
  • Legend acquisition cross-sell and audience/intent integration into Genius platforms (immediate cross-sell prioritized)

Business Development

  • Media agency/holdco partnerships: PMG, Publicis, WPP (recently added WPP)
  • Supply-side platform: Magnite (real-time sports signals embedded into Magnite platform)
  • Broadcast/ads: NBC Sports regional networks powering AI-driven augmented advertising across 600 live NBA games
  • BetVision distribution/inventory expansion opportunity via third-party publishers using moment engine
  • Legend acquisition (audience monetization platform; intent signals; customer examples cited in prepared remarks, with crossover into Genius distribution)

AI IconFinancial Highlights

  • FY 2025 revenue: $669M (+31% YoY); group adjusted EBITDA: $136M (20% margin) (highest annual margin as public company)
  • FY 2025 betting revenue: +33% (strongest since 2021; first year with exclusive NFL data rights)
  • FY 2025 media revenue: +37% to $144M; Q4 exceptional growth not expected to repeat (second-half benefited from ramping new partners + strong comparison period and gross-to-net media reporting change)
  • 2026 guidance (organic): revenue $810M-$820M (+22%); adjusted EBITDA $180M-$190M (+36%)
  • Legend accretion guidance: immediately accretive post-close in Q2 2026; annualized combined entity revenue $1.1B; group adjusted EBITDA $320M-$330M; adjusted EBITDA margin ~30%; free cash flow conversion ~50%
  • Free cash flow held back in 2025: ~$30M swing attributable to nonrecurring exceptional legal/litigation expense (excluding this improves year-over-year FCF outlook)
  • Media growth ramp nuance: newly announced agency agreements are 'early' and 'fairly muted, if any' contribution in near term

AI IconCapital Funding

  • 2025 free cash flow down: management referenced a $281M balance (definition includes EBITDA minus cap software/CapEx/PP&E plus working capital and taxes)
  • 2026 stance: focused on growing cash balance year-to-year; no specified 2026 buybacks or new debt disclosed in transcript

AI IconStrategy & Ops

  • Media reporting change: transitioning some media arrangements from gross to net will impact reported top-line growth rates but expected to improve margin profile
  • Moment engine commercialization: externalizing moments engine and packaging 'curated deals' using audience data + inventory + intelligence; distribute via direct-to-agency and ad-tech ecosystem channels
  • BetVision commercialization metrics: ~30% in-play in U.S.; Europe 70%-80% in some cases; target to accelerate toward these levels via Legend-driven real-time optimization
  • BetVision event expansion: management cited ~25,000 events in discussion and referenced a materials path to ~300,000 events (notably driven by esports)

AI IconMarket Outlook

  • 2026 organic guidance: $810M-$820M revenue; $180M-$190M adjusted EBITDA
  • Legend synergy timing: 'most immediate impact' is customer cross-sell; technology data flow into moment engine expected as soon as deal closes
  • Media second-half growth moderation: management expects exceptionally high growth rate from 2H comparisons not to continue (new agreements take time to onboard)

AI IconRisks & Headwinds

  • Litigation/legal: 2025 included nonrecurring exceptional legal expense; 2026 litigation-related activities are 'live' and management would update 'as appropriate'β€”no further quantified guidance provided
  • Prediction markets advertising volatility/regulatory evolution: management sees spend flowing into prediction-market activation and is monitoring a rapidly evolving regulatory transition (comfort tied to medium-term outcome; also framed as increasing need for data/market-making)
  • Media growth timing/comparisons: second-half 2025 growth inflated by new partner launches and strong comparison period; therefore moderation expected

Sentiment: MIXED

Note: This summary was synthesized by AI from the GENI Q4 2025 earnings transcript. Financial data is complex; please verify all metrics against official SEC filings before making investment decisions.

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SEC Filings (GENI)

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